It might surprise you that it was a Republican, Rep. Dusty Johnson, who recently declared that the House Republicans were riding in the "same stupid clown car with a different driver." Johnson, a congressman from South Dakota, criticized the state of the House following the decision of eight Republican members who voted alongside Democrats to remove Kevin McCarthy as speaker. This ongoing upset, however, is not just about the election of a new speaker, but a crystal-clear sign of an unprecedented division we hasn't seen in our modern era.
This schism lies at the core of Republican unrest: it's about conflicting ideologies as well as shattered trust in leaders’ ability to compromise in a way that satisfies the party. The conservative majority of GOP House members voting against McCarthy points to the ideological discord. Still, it should be noted that plenty of conservative Republicans failed to vote McCarthy out, such as Texas Rep. Chip Roy.
Another component of this Republican divide concerns whether to govern through compromise. Are party members willing to back compromises made by House GOP leaders with Democrats to keep the government running? Gauging congressional votes reveals some insights.
Notably, Florida’s Matt Gaetz has been the least cooperative with party leadership this session, based on data from Voteview academics. The statistics also reveal that the compromise gap between the House Republicans who are most and least open to dealing and supporting party leadership is wider than it has been in the previous eight decades. The importance of representatives like Gaetz cannot be overlooked, given the slim GOP majority - it only takes a few lawmakers to disrupt the status quo, as shown recently.
It's worth mentioning that figures like Gaetz do not just appear out of thin air; they are in Congress because people voted them in—often, these are voters who hold strong support for former president Donald Trump.
In a recent poll, we asked whether Republicans in Congress should maintain their beliefs without compromise, even if results are slow, or should they work with others and risk losing high-priority policies. Most Trump-supporting voters in the upcoming 2024 GOP primary (52%) support a firm stand, while just 23% of non-Trump-supporters preferred uncompromising lawmakers.
The reality is, Trump still has strong GOP backing, with most Republicans (58%) supporting him in the primary—representing his unconventional approach to politics.
Consequently, the majority of Trump supporters (56%) approved when McCarthy was ousted as speaker following his deal with Democrats to prevent a government shutdown. Among all other Republicans, the approval rate was just 37%.
Amongst Republican voters, the idea of compromising to deter a government shutdown isn’t vastly different than ten years ago. The real change seems to be the people in Congress. Today's anti-establishment GOP lawmakers, like Kentucky’s Thomas Massie, are no longer "extreme" enough for the party.
The contemporary party of Trump has nudged aside figures like Massie for figures like Gaetz. Today's narrow House GOP majority recalls the late '90s and early '00s era rather than the tea party phase from a decade ago.
25 years ago, polling indicated that Republicans were much more open to compromise. 63% of Republicans were in favor of compromise in negotiations with then-Democratic President Bill Clinton, and only 28% preferred adhering to strict principles.
Now, with another slender majority in the House, Republicans seem more willing to endure challenges for the sake of principle. In today's Congressional climate, it's unsurprising that the GOP House leadership battle feels more like a drama than real life.
