Will 2024 See Trump's ‘Rule or Ruin’ Political Strategy in Action?

By Emma Nguyen September 12, 2023

As Trump escalates his rhetoric, he raises the specter of a second term even more challenging to democracy than his first.

Donald Trump seems to be crafting his most foreboding vision yet for a possible second term. The ex-president told supporters using language reminiscent of the buildup to the unsettling January 6 mob attack on the US Capitol, that they must “fight like hell” otherwise their country is at risk.

Speaking at a South Dakota rally, Trump heightened his rhetoric further, accusing his potential 2024 opponent, President Joe Biden, of orchestrating his indictment on 91 charges across four criminal cases as an attempt to manipulate the election.

“There’s never been a darkness around our nation like there is now,” he expressed, accusing Democrats of enticing an “invasion” of migrants across the southern border and stoking the flames of Covid “hysteria.”

Trump's confronting remarks bring into focus a possible second presidency rife with extremism and challenges to the law, potentially even more intense than during his first term. Speculation abounds that Trump might continue similar behaviors for which he is currently awaiting trial, including efforts to intimidate local officials allegedly in an attempt to reverse his 2020 defeat.

Trump invariably twisted criticism of his actions to locate fault with his political rivals, suggesting that the real danger to America’s political freedoms lay not in his efforts to discredit a free and fair election, but in the attempts to make him legally accountable for doing so.

“This is a big moment in our country as we’re either going to go one direction or the other, and if we go the other, it’s over for our country,” he told the South Dakota crowd. “We will fight together, we will win together and then we will seek justice together,” he added, setting the stage for a possible 2024 run that echoes his aggressive 2020 campaign.

Trump’s fear-mongering rhetoric and ability to spread unreflective misinformation have created a swirling vortex of chaos and bitterness, a unique setting in which he seems to prosper. His influence is reflected in how only 28% of Republicans believe Biden legitimately clinched the necessary votes to win the 2020 election, despite the clear refutation of Trump's claims by numerous courts.

The autocratic style of Trump’s campaigning casts a looming shadow over the 2024 election, creating urgent dilemmas for voters and his opponents. For example, it fuels the escalating debate over whether Biden, at 80, has the necessary vitality and political astuteness to successfully counter Trump for a second time.

While Trump spent the weekend sowing doubt about America’s electoral system, Biden dealt with international relations in India and Vietnam to gather support for his signature foreign policy strategy which aims to combat the threat to Western democracy from authoritarian leaders in China and Russia.

Conversely, back in the US, Trump’s extremism unearths the timidity of most of his Republican primary rivals, who tend to criticize Trump only indirectly to avoid alienating his scores of GOP enthusiasts.

One particularly critical question surrounding the 2024 election is whether the GOP would risk nominating a candidate like Trump, whose untamed mannerisms could drive away the swing-district suburban voters who turned against him in 2020, particularly considering the possibility that he could be a convicted felon by the time voters cast their decisions.

On the flip side, if Trump secures the nomination, will his liabilities and the prospect of four more years of tumult mitigate concerns about Biden’s physical and mental competence and worry about the economy?

However, it is also clear that Trump’s strong lead in the primary suggests there is a demand for his brand of authoritative dramatics. He possesses a large following who trust and look up to him, persuaded by his false claims surrounding the 2020 election and his portrayals of his criminal indictments as political persecution.

It may be argued that Trump's rising popularity within the GOP is because of his repertoire of well-crafted indictments. Fueled by Trump's narratives, Republicans share a widespread belief that the current administration's Justice Department is preferentially treating Hunter Biden–the president’s son who is under investigation over alleged tax and gun law violations.

An enduring divide in American politics is palpable, likely to be further heightened by the contentious upcoming election. This schism was evident at a recent football game, where Trump, one of several GOP attendees, was met with a mixture of cheers and boos.

The essence of Trump’s verbal thrusts is a crucial part of his political charm and strategy, which has helped him garner significant political support. In his South Dakota speech, Trump claimed victim status, accusing his opponents of “corrupt and blatant” victimization and “election interference.”

If history serves as a lesson, Trump's threats and pronouncements on the campaign trail deserve our undivided attention, because they may well portend his actions should he secure victory in 2024.

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